Now it seems that the Syrian apple matured, after five years of fighting and tragedies, especially after the US gave Russia all of its dirty errands
The “dirty errands” began before Vladimir Putin militarily intervened in the Syrian field to manage the battle runs in parallel with the closed doors of all of the peaceful settlement before and after Geneva, confirming that the reality on the ground will prevent a military solution.
Assad is not able to regain control over 80 per cent of the areas of Syria; Putin is not ready to place the blood of another quarter of a million on his shoulders to restore the rule of a family who he said in 2012 that it should leave; Obama is also not ready or capable – on the eve of his departure from the White House – but to only clap as he sinks in the guilt of destroying Syria.
Thus, the agreement between John Kerry and Sergei Lavrov on the 22nd Feb. was a landmark: firstly when Kerry talked about “Plan B”, then the settlement negotiations failed its already failed state, and then when a clearer explanation came from Moscow, where Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Rybakov announced in a press conference that Russia supports the conclusions made by the participants in the Syrian negotiations, including the establishment of a federal republic.
It is a sugarcoating name for division, which is not a discovery, but was an obvious target of the US throughout their turning a blind eye on the Syrian massacre. It was way more obvious especially after Washington always opposed the establishment of a buffer zone in northern Syria and when it intervened with full force to support the Kurds in Kobani, who are now fighting the US-trained moderate opposition.
The Federal Syria, on which much political analysis ink has been spelled in the western media, is technically a division. Its three borders are currently being drawn up.
The establishment of an Alawite statelet will be the first which has not been a secret since the Assad regime came to power in 1970. The Alawite entity or the so-called the “State of the Coast” supposedly runs on the Mediterranean coast from southern Turkey to Damascus via Homs.
The second statelet is supposed to include the Kurdish axis; called “Rugova.”
The third axis is divided now between the Syrian opposition groups, including al-Nusra Front and Ahrar al-Sham, which controls areas distant from each other, like Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, Daraa and the south. What remains is ISIS’ area which is currently under battle and stretches between Raqqa, Deir al-Zour and Palmyra.
In the western diplomatic reports, that are eager to link federalism with the division, each mini-state of the division areas will have an international umbrella. The Russians will secure the Alawite State of the Coast, the Americans will defend the Kurdish mini-state, while the Sunni statelet areas will be secured by Turkey and Jordan.
It is assumed that a cooperation will arise between these statelets to crush ISIS. And from now Assad has nothing to do or to say but bow down and obey Putin
Rajeh al-Khoury in Asharq Al-Awsat
Translated from Arabic by Orient Net English